Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 3:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Cincinnati Bearcats 97%
Arizona Wildcats 3%
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
32.0 vs 40.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Cincinnati Bearcats Arizona Wildcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Tre Spivey receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Hunter III receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cole Tabb rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Cincinnati Bearcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 72.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 72.5 Under· Totals Under Arizona Wildcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 32.0 vs 40.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 Arizona Wildcats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 32.0 → expected margin 8.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
63% Arizona Wildcats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Arizona Wildcats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Arizona Wildcats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Tre Spivey receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Hunter III receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cole Tabb rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Giovanni Richardson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Malachi Henry receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noah Fifita rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JV Gibson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JV Gibson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Giovanni Richardson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Noah Fifita pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kedrick Reescano rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JC French IV pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Spivey 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Spivey 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kedrick Reescano rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JC French IV pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Noah Fifita pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Giovanni Richardson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over JV Gibson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over JV Gibson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Fifita rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Malachi Henry receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Giovanni Richardson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tre Spivey receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Hunter III receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cole Tabb rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Team stats6 Cincinnati Bearcats team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Arizona Wildcats team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Arizona Wildcats Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arizona Wildcats Team pass yds 339.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Cincinnati Bearcats Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Cincinnati Bearcats Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.