Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 2:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Clemson Tigers 57%
California Golden Bears 43%
Locked before start
Clemson Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 74% Clemson Tigers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 57% Hit Clemson Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 62% Showing 3 of 20 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1338 vs 1572
+14.0%p Points per game
26.0 vs 21.0
-4.0%p
Head to head Clemson Tigers California Golden Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 250yds (per game 62.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 50.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.97 → expected 48.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Tyler Brown receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Clemson Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Clemson Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 California Golden Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Clemson Tigers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 California Golden Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Clemson Tigers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 California Golden Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ California Golden Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 IS Ian Strong receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 250yds (per game 62.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 50.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.97 → expected 48.4 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Tyler Brown receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Gideon Davidson rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Adam Mohammed receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.J. Moore receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Olsen Patt-Henry receiving yds 22.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chase Hendricks receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tait Reynolds rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ian Strong 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tyler Brown 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Tait Reynolds pass yds 124.5 Under· Pass Yds Under T.J. Moore 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chase Hendricks 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chase Hendricks 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over T.J. Moore 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tait Reynolds pass yds 124.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ian Strong 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tyler Brown 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tait Reynolds rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Adam Mohammed rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chase Hendricks receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adam Mohammed receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.J. Moore receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Olsen Patt-Henry receiving yds 22.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gideon Davidson rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ashten Emory rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ian Strong receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyler Brown receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Clemson Tigers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/11 Hit
57% Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over California Golden Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1338 vs 1572 (50% blend)· Points per game 26.0 vs 21.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/25 Miss
43% Team stats6 California Golden Bears team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Clemson Tigers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Clemson Tigers Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Clemson Tigers Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds California Golden Bears Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds California Golden Bears Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.