Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bears — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Colorado Buffaloes 67%
Baylor Bears 32%
Locked before start
Baylor Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 32% Hit Colorado Buffaloes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 67% Baylor Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 61% Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1537 vs 1327
-19.1%p Points per game
29.8 vs 21.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Colorado Buffaloes Baylor Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 287yds (per game 71.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 62.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Charlie Williams receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayden McGowan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Colorado Buffaloes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
67% Baylor Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Colorado Buffaloes within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Baylor Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Colorado Buffaloes within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Baylor Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Colorado Buffaloes within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Baylor Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Colorado Buffaloes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/24 Miss
67% Both total runs 51.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 51.5 Over· Totals Over Baylor Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1537 vs 1327 (50% blend)· Points per game 29.8 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 23/14 Hit
32% player stat32 DP Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Low
season 4games 287yds (per game 71.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 61.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 62.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.50)
62% Charlie Williams receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayden McGowan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DeAndre Moore Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Quanell Farrakhan Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Louis Brown IV receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gavin Freeman receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JaQuail Smith rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Micah Welch rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Knighten rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Julian Lewis pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nate Bennett pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under DeAndre Moore Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Louis Brown IV 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Gavin Freeman 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Quanell Farrakhan Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Quanell Farrakhan Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Gavin Freeman 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Louis Brown IV 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Nate Bennett pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over DeAndre Moore Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Julian Lewis pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Caden Knighten rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Micah Welch rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JaQuail Smith rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gavin Freeman receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Louis Brown IV receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayden McGowan receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeAndre Moore Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Quanell Farrakhan Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Charlie Williams receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Baylor Bears team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Colorado Buffaloes team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Baylor Bears Team pass yds 304.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado Buffaloes Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Baylor Bears Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Colorado Buffaloes Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.