Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern Wildcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Colorado Buffaloes 32%
Northwestern Wildcats 67%
Locked before start
Northwestern Wildcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 67% Hit Northwestern Wildcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 44% Northwestern Wildcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 34% Showing 3 of 14 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1640 vs 1327 (50% blend)· Points per game 32.7 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1640 vs 1327
+23.4%p Points per game
32.7 vs 21.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Colorado Buffaloes Northwestern Wildcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Luke Dehnicke 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Quanell Farrakhan Jr. receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Alex Honig receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Colorado Buffaloes within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 11.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Colorado Buffaloes within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 11.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Colorado Buffaloes within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Colorado Buffaloes within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Northwestern Wildcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Northwestern Wildcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Northwestern Wildcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Northwestern Wildcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Northwestern Wildcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1640 vs 1327 (50% blend)· Points per game 32.7 vs 21.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 41/8 Hit
67% Both total runs 54.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 54.5 Over· Totals Over Colorado Buffaloes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/42 Miss
32% player stat32 Luke Dehnicke 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Quanell Farrakhan Jr. receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Dehnicke receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Alex Honig receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Komolafe receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Welch rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeAndre Moore Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Charlie Williams receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JaQuail Smith rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caleb Komolafe rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aidan Chiles pass yds 239.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Joseph Himon II rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Julian Lewis pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Caleb Komolafe 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over DeAndre Moore Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Quanell Farrakhan Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over DeAndre Moore Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Quanell Farrakhan Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Caleb Komolafe 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Julian Lewis pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Joseph Himon II rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aidan Chiles pass yds 239.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Caleb Komolafe rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JaQuail Smith rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over DeAndre Moore Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Charlie Williams receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micah Welch rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Dehnicke receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Alex Honig receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Komolafe receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luke Dehnicke 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Quanell Farrakhan Jr. receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Northwestern Wildcats team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Colorado Buffaloes team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Northwestern Wildcats Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado Buffaloes Team pass yds 239.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado Buffaloes Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Northwestern Wildcats Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.