Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Colorado State Rams 32%
UTSA Roadrunners 67%
Locked before start
UTSA Roadrunners Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 67% Hit UTSA Roadrunners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 65% UTSA Roadrunners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 55% Showing 3 of 26 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1519 vs 1314 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.3 vs 40.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1519 vs 1314
+18.8%p Points per game
35.3 vs 40.3
-4.0%p
Head to head Colorado State Rams UTSA Roadrunners
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 242yds (per game 60.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 52.4· opponent defense matchup ×1.01 → expected 52.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under David Amador II receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 UTSA Roadrunners Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1519 vs 1314 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.3 vs 40.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 59/46 Hit
67% Both total runs 75.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 75.5 Under· Totals Under Colorado State Rams Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/60 Miss
32% Winning margin8 UTSA Roadrunners within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Colorado State Rams wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ UTSA Roadrunners within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UTSA Roadrunners within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UTSA Roadrunners within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Colorado State Rams wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 DJ DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 242yds (per game 60.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 52.4· opponent defense matchup ×1.01 → expected 52.8 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under David Amador II receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harper 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Will Henderson III rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mel Brown rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brandon High Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Durell Robinson rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cedric Ross receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jackson Harper receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Owen McCown pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hauss Hejny pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under DJ Allen Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mekhi Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Allen Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Owen McCown pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hauss Hejny pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Harper receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cedric Ross receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Anderson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brandon High Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Durell Robinson rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mel Brown rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Will Henderson III rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Harper 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over David Amador II receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Smith Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Allen Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Smith Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UTSA Roadrunners team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Colorado State Rams team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points UTSA Roadrunners Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UTSA Roadrunners Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado State Rams Team pass yds 319.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Colorado State Rams Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.