Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia Cavaliers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Delaware Blue Hens 5%
Virginia Cavaliers 95%
Locked before start
Virginia Cavaliers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 72% Virginia Cavaliers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 95% Hit Virginia Cavaliers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 63% Showing 3 of 21 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 40.5 vs 21.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
40.5 vs 21.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Delaware Blue Hens Virginia Cavaliers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 5games 147yds (per game 29.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 36.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 31.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Virginia Cavaliers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 40.5 vs 21.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/4 Hit
95% Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Delaware Blue Hens Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 3/43 Miss
5% Winning margin8 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 21.4 → expected margin 19.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
72% Virginia Cavaliers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Virginia Cavaliers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Delaware Blue Hens within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Virginia Cavaliers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Delaware Blue Hens within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Delaware Blue Hens within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Delaware Blue Hens within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 BG Bryson Graves receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 147yds (per game 29.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 36.0· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 31.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Da'Wain Lofton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Kaderris Roberts rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kaderris Roberts receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Da'Wain Lofton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nick Minicucci pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jo Silver rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Graves 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Graves 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Rico Flores Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Beau Pribula pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nick Minicucci pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jo Silver rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Da'Wain Lofton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kaderris Roberts receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Da'Shawn Martin receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Xay Davis rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kameron Courtney 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kaderris Roberts rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jekail Middlebrook rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rico Flores Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Da'Wain Lofton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kameron Courtney receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bryson Graves receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Delaware Blue Hens team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Virginia Cavaliers team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Virginia Cavaliers Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Delaware Blue Hens Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Virginia Cavaliers Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Delaware Blue Hens Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.