Delaware State Hornets at South Florida Bulls — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Delaware State Hornets 6%
South Florida Bulls 94%
Locked before start
South Florida Bulls Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 94% Hit Jaylin Terzado receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 59% Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 55% Showing 3 of 13 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1652 vs 1328 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.0 vs 25.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1652 vs 1328
+23.7%p Points per game
30.0 vs 25.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Delaware State Hornets South Florida Bulls
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Joshua Porter receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Arhmad Branch receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 South Florida Bulls Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1652 vs 1328 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.0 vs 25.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 59/18 Hit
94% Both total runs 55.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 55.5 Under· Totals Under Delaware State Hornets Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/60 Miss
6% Winning margin8 Delaware State Hornets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Delaware State Hornets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Delaware State Hornets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 South Florida Bulls wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Delaware State Hornets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 South Florida Bulls wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ South Florida Bulls wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ South Florida Bulls wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Joshua Porter receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Arhmad Branch receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terrence Rone 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylin Terzado receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden Jenkins rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nathan Stewart receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terrence Rone receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 104.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ui Ale rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ui Ale pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylin Terzado 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Joshua Porter 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylin Terzado 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ui Ale pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ui Ale rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jason Collins Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Rodgers 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Kromenhoek pass yds 104.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Terrence Rone receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over D.J. Crowther rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayden Jenkins rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nathan Stewart receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylin Terzado receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Rone 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryson Rodgers receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Arhmad Branch receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Joshua Porter receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Delaware State Hornets team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points South Florida Bulls team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points South Florida Bulls Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Delaware State Hornets Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Delaware State Hornets Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds South Florida Bulls Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.