East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion Monarchs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast East Carolina Pirates 29%
Old Dominion Monarchs 71%
Locked before start
East Carolina Pirates Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 29% Hit Ashton Gray rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 57% Ray Ray Joseph Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over 46% Showing 3 of 7 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1279 vs 1462 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.3 vs 24.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1279 vs 1462
-10.4%p Points per game
22.3 vs 24.0
-1.7%p
Head to head East Carolina Pirates Old Dominion Monarchs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jeremiah Melvin receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Old Dominion Monarchs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
82% Old Dominion Monarchs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Old Dominion Monarchs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Old Dominion Monarchs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 East Carolina Pirates wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ East Carolina Pirates wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Old Dominion Monarchs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1279 vs 1462 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.3 vs 24.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/21 Miss
71% Both total runs 46.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 46.5 Over· Totals Over East Carolina Pirates Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/18 Hit
29% player stat32 Jeremiah Melvin receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dillon Lorick receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devin Roche rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JJ Harrell receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Engleman Jr. rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Quinn Henicle rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashton Gray rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mitch Griffis pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Quinn Henicle pass yds 129.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Rodriguez 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Jeremiah Melvin 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Rodriguez 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Melvin 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ray Ray Joseph Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Quinn Henicle pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Mitch Griffis pass yds 129.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ashton Gray rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Quinn Henicle rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ray Ray Joseph Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Engleman Jr. rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Devin Roche rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JJ Harrell receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dillon Lorick receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Melvin receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Old Dominion Monarchs team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points East Carolina Pirates team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points East Carolina Pirates Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Old Dominion Monarchs Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Old Dominion Monarchs Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds East Carolina Pirates Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.