East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden Hurricane — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate East Texas A&M Lions 3%
Tulsa Golden Hurricane 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.8 vs 16.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
23.8 vs 16.8
+4.0%p
Head to head East Texas A&M Lions Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 117yds (per game 23.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 32.6· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 36.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Quay Middlebrooks rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Andrez Lewis receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Tulsa Golden Hurricane Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.8 vs 16.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/1 Hit
97% Both total runs 40.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 40.5 Under· Totals Under East Texas A&M Lions Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 0/43 Miss
3% Winning margin8 East Texas A&M Lions within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ East Texas A&M Lions within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 East Texas A&M Lions within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ East Texas A&M Lions within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Tulsa Golden Hurricane wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 TH Tanner Harrison receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 117yds (per game 23.4)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 32.6· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 36.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Quay Middlebrooks rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Andrez Lewis receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Damari Alston rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Simpson receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrez Lewis 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Ross receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under EJ Oakmon rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Eric Rodriguez pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jimmy Calloway 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Micah Simpson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Baylor Hayes pass yds 119.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Baylor Hayes pass yds 119.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jimmy Calloway 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Micah Simpson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Eric Rodriguez pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trequan Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over EJ Oakmon rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Oran Singleton Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Ross receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Oran Singleton Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Damari Alston rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jimmy Calloway receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micah Simpson receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Andrez Lewis 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Andrez Lewis receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Quay Middlebrooks rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tanner Harrison receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 East Texas A&M Lions team runs 16.5 Over· Team Points Tulsa Golden Hurricane team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points East Texas A&M Lions Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds East Texas A&M Lions Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team pass yds 154.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tulsa Golden Hurricane Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.