Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe Warhawks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Florida Atlantic Owls 93%
UL Monroe Warhawks 7%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1022 vs 1300
+16.8%p Points per game
21.3 vs 30.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Florida Atlantic Owls UL Monroe Warhawks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Branden Hoch receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nic Trujillo receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LT Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Florida Atlantic Owls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/18 Hit
93% Both total runs 51.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 51.5 Over· Totals Over UL Monroe Warhawks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1022 vs 1300 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.3 vs 30.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/46 Miss
7% Winning margin8 UL Monroe Warhawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% Florida Atlantic Owls wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.0 vs 21.3 → expected margin 8.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
64% UL Monroe Warhawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Florida Atlantic Owls wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Florida Atlantic Owls wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ UL Monroe Warhawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Florida Atlantic Owls wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Branden Hoch receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nic Trujillo receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under LT Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Easton Messer receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Easton Messer 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ethan Ervin rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dominique Henry receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dominique Henry 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Drew Devillier pass yds 109.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Aidan Armenta pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Leonard Farrow rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Roland rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Bryce Anderson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bryson Roland rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Leonard Farrow rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aidan Armenta pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Drew Devillier pass yds 109.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Dominique Henry receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dominique Henry 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Austin Carlisle rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ethan Ervin rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marcellus Jackson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Easton Messer 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Marcellus Jackson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Easton Messer receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over LT Robinson receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nic Trujillo receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Branden Hoch receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 UL Monroe Warhawks team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Florida Atlantic Owls team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points UL Monroe Warhawks Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Atlantic Owls Team pass yds 334.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Atlantic Owls Team rush yds 124.5 Over· Team Rush Yds UL Monroe Warhawks Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.