Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Florida Gators 43%
Auburn Tigers 57%
Locked before start
Florida Gators wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 93% Florida Gators wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 89% Florida Gators wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ 85% Showing 3 of 17 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1751 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.0 vs 53.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
30.0 vs 53.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Florida Gators Auburn Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Chas Nimrod receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Harpring receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Koger receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Florida Gators wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 30.0 → expected margin 21.4 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
93% Florida Gators wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 30.0 → expected margin 21.4 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
89% Florida Gators wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Florida Gators wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Auburn Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Auburn Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Auburn Tigers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Auburn Tigers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Chas Nimrod receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Harpring receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremiah Koger receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Duke Clark rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Vernell Brown III receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Byrum Brown rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chas Nimrod 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Keshaun Singleton 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under TJ Abrams receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keshaun Singleton receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jadan Baugh rush yds 109.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Cobb rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aaron Philo pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Byrum Brown pass yds 229.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Vernell Brown III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Vernell Brown III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Byrum Brown pass yds 229.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aaron Philo pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jeremiah Cobb rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keshaun Singleton receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jadan Baugh rush yds 109.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Byrum Brown rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chas Nimrod 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Keshaun Singleton 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Abrams receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Duke Clark rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Vernell Brown III receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremiah Koger receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chas Nimrod receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luke Harpring receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Auburn Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1679 vs 1751 (50% blend)· Points per game 30.0 vs 53.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 39/45 Miss
57% Both total runs 81.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 81.5 Under· Totals Under Florida Gators Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 44/40 Hit
43% Team stats6 Florida Gators team runs 51.5 Over· Team Points Auburn Tigers team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Auburn Tigers Team pass yds 264.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Gators Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Gators Team rush yds 284.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Auburn Tigers Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.