Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:50 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Florida Gators 42%
Missouri Tigers 58%
Locked before start
Florida Gators wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 71% Florida Gators wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 62% Florida Gators wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ 54% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-1 vs 4-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 35.8 vs 53.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
35.8 vs 53.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Florida Gators Missouri Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Florida Gators wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 35.8 → expected margin 15.6 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
71% Florida Gators wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 51.4 vs 35.8 → expected margin 15.6 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
62% Missouri Tigers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Florida Gators wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri Tigers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Florida Gators wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Missouri Tigers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Missouri Tigers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamal Roberts rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cayden Lee receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jadan Baugh rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Harpring receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Aaron Philo pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Austin Simmons pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Duke Clark rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cayden Lee 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Vernell Brown III 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Vernell Brown III 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Donovan Olugbode 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cayden Lee 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Luke Harpring 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Duke Clark rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Austin Simmons pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Aaron Philo pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Xai'Shaun Edwards rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Naeshaun Montgomery receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cayden Lee receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jadan Baugh rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luke Harpring receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamal Roberts rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TJ Abrams receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Vernell Brown III receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Donovan Olugbode receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Missouri Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-1 vs 4-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 35.8 vs 53.5 (capped at ±4%p)· absence adjustment (home 0 / away 1)
runs 45/18 Hit
58% Both total runs 87.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 87.5 Over· Totals Over Florida Gators Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-1 vs 4-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/46 Miss
42% Team stats6 Missouri Tigers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Florida Gators team runs 51.5 Over· Team Points Missouri Tigers Team pass yds 294.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida Gators Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri Tigers Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Florida Gators Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.