Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 9:15 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Florida State Seminoles 3%
Alabama Crimson Tide 97%
Locked before start
Alabama Crimson Tide Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 82% Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 74% Showing 3 of 16 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1929 vs 1544 (50% blend)· Points per game 48.0 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1929 vs 1544
+25.4%p Points per game
48.0 vs 32.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Florida State Seminoles Alabama Crimson Tide
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keelon Russell rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Alabama Crimson Tide Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1929 vs 1544 (50% blend)· Points per game 48.0 vs 32.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 50/37 Hit
97% Both total runs 80.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 80.5 Over· Totals Over Florida State Seminoles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/51 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 48.0 vs 32.0 → expected margin 16.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
82% Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 48.0 vs 32.0 → expected margin 16.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
74% Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Alabama Crimson Tide wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Florida State Seminoles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Florida State Seminoles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Florida State Seminoles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Florida State Seminoles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Keelon Russell rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Duce Robinson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Hill rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ousmane Kromah rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ashton Daniels rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Keelon Russell pass yds 264.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ashton Daniels pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Coleman-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Duce Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Keelon Russell pass yds 264.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ashton Daniels pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Ashton Daniels rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayvan Boggs 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ousmane Kromah rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Hill rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayvan Boggs receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lotzeir Brooks 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Ryan Coleman-Williams receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lotzeir Brooks receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Duce Robinson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keelon Russell rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Marshall Pritchett receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micahi Danzy receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Alabama Crimson Tide team runs 48.5 Over· Team Points Florida State Seminoles team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Alabama Crimson Tide Team pass yds 314.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida State Seminoles Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Florida State Seminoles Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Alabama Crimson Tide Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.