Fresno State Bulldogs at San José State Spartans — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 3:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Fresno State Bulldogs 72%
San José State Spartans 28%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1393 vs 1604
+12.5%p Points per game
23.3 vs 28.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Fresno State Bulldogs San José State Spartans
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jahlil McClain receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Clark receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cooper Hoch receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 San José State Spartans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% San José State Spartans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 5.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
65% San José State Spartans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ San José State Spartans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Fresno State Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/11 Hit
72% Both total runs 51.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 51.5 Under· Totals Under San José State Spartans Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1393 vs 1604 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.3 vs 28.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/27 Miss
28% player stat32 Jahlil McClain receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Clark receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cooper Hoch receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cooper Hoch 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josiah Freeman receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carson Clark 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Anthony Ivey receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Weaver pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jabari Bates rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Weaver rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josiah Freeman 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jayden Mandal pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jayden Mandal pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Luke Weaver rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josiah Freeman 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Luke Weaver pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jabari Bates rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Anthony Ivey receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carson Clark 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Carson Clark receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cooper Hoch receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cooper Hoch 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josiah Freeman receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahlil McClain receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 San José State Spartans team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Fresno State Bulldogs team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Fresno State Bulldogs Team pass yds 219.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San José State Spartans Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San José State Spartans Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Fresno State Bulldogs Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.