Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 1:30 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Fresno State Bulldogs 95%
Washington State Cougars 5%
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
22.3 vs 28.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Fresno State Bulldogs Washington State Cougars
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 157yds (per game 39.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 41.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 43.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Caden Pinnick rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Blood receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Fresno State Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
95% Both total runs 50.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 50.5 Under· Totals Under Washington State Cougars Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 22.3 vs 28.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
5% Winning margin8 Washington State Cougars within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Washington State Cougars within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Washington State Cougars within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Washington State Cougars within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Fresno State Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 DC Darrius Clemons receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 157yds (per game 39.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 41.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.04 → expected 43.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Caden Pinnick rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Blood receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jahlil McClain receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kirby Vorhees rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josiah Freeman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Branden Ganashamoorthy receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jayden Mandal pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Caden Pinnick pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Blood 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josiah Freeman 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrius Clemons 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrius Clemons 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josiah Freeman 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Blood 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Caden Pinnick pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bryson Donelson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Branden Ganashamoorthy receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayden Mandal pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josiah Freeman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ezekiel Avit receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kirby Vorhees rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rayshon Luke rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Caden Pinnick rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Blood receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahlil McClain receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rayshon Luke 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Darrius Clemons receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Washington State Cougars team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Fresno State Bulldogs team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Fresno State Bulldogs Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Washington State Cougars Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Washington State Cougars Team pass yds 169.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Fresno State Bulldogs Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.