Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering Herd — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs 7%
Marshall Thundering Herd 93%
Locked before start
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under 59% Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over 41%
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.5 vs 26.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
23.5 vs 26.4
-2.9%p
Head to head Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Marshall Thundering Herd
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adrian Cormier rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Giovanni Adopte receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Marshall Thundering Herd Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 23.5 vs 26.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/36 Hit
93% Both total runs 49.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 49.5 Under· Totals Under Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/37 Miss
7% Winning margin8 Marshall Thundering Herd within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.9 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Marshall Thundering Herd within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.9 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Marshall Thundering Herd within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Marshall Thundering Herd within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat30 Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adrian Cormier rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Giovanni Adopte receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kory Jones receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Giovanni Adopte 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Toby Payne receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalile Bost receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Toby Payne 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Pennington pass yds 279.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kory Jones 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Toby Payne 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Pennington pass yds 279.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Kory Jones 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Toby Payne receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalile Bost receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kory Jones receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Giovanni Adopte 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Adrian Cormier rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Giovanni Adopte receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Marshall Thundering Herd team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Marshall Thundering Herd Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Marshall Thundering Herd Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs Team rush yds 114.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.