Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Georgia Bulldogs 97%
Arkansas Razorbacks 3%
Locked before start
Georgia Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 99% Georgia Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Georgia Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 99% Showing 3 of 12 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1516 vs 2023
+25.7%p Points per game
23.0 vs 54.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Georgia Bulldogs Arkansas Razorbacks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
KJ Jackson rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ismael Cisse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Craig Dandridge receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Georgia Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 54.8 vs 23.0 → expected margin 31.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
99% Georgia Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 54.8 vs 23.0 → expected margin 31.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
99% Georgia Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Georgia Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Arkansas Razorbacks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Arkansas Razorbacks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Georgia Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 45/18 Hit
97% Both total runs 77.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 77.5 Under· Totals Under Arkansas Razorbacks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1516 vs 2023 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.0 vs 54.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/46 Miss
3% player stat32 KJ Jackson rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ismael Cisse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Craig Dandridge receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Marshall 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncey Bowens receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jeremy Bell receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Marshall receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Frazier rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braylen Russell rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dwight Phillips Jr. rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under KJ Jackson pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chauncey Bowens 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Craig Dandridge 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Puglisi pass yds 104.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ty Lockwood 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Ty Lockwood 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Ryan Puglisi pass yds 104.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Craig Dandridge 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Jackson pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Chauncey Bowens 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Braylen Russell rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dwight Phillips Jr. rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nate Frazier rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Marshall receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Hawkins receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jeremy Bell receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chauncey Bowens receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Marshall 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over KJ Jackson rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ismael Cisse receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Craig Dandridge receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Georgia Bulldogs team runs 54.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas Razorbacks team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas Razorbacks Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Bulldogs Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Bulldogs Team rush yds 239.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Arkansas Razorbacks Team rush yds 79.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.