Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Georgia Southern Eagles 45%
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 55%
Locked before start
Georgia Southern Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 66% Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 55% Hit Georgia Southern Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 55% Showing 3 of 19 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1435 vs 1341 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.4 vs 23.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1435 vs 1341
+12.0%p Points per game
27.4 vs 23.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Georgia Southern Eagles Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under River Helms receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Georgia Southern Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 27.4 vs 23.3 → expected margin 4.1 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
65% Georgia Southern Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Georgia Southern Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Georgia Southern Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under River Helms receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under David Mbadinga rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Dallas receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caden Creel rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Darius Cannon receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ashton Hollins receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Dallas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jamarian Samuel rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under River Helms 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jalen Likely rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Creel pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Max Johnson pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Caden Creel pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Max Johnson pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Likely rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jamarian Samuel rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over River Helms 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Dallas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Caden Creel rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Darius Cannon receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ashton Hollins receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Dallas receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over David Mbadinga rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over River Helms receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over games4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1435 vs 1341 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.4 vs 23.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/28 Hit
55% Both total runs 50.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 50.5 Under· Totals Under Georgia Southern Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/32 Miss
45% Team stats6 Jacksonville State Gamecocks team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Georgia Southern Eagles team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Georgia Southern Eagles Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Southern Eagles Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.