Georgia State Panthers at UCF Knights — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Georgia State Panthers 64%
UCF Knights 36%
Locked before start
UCF Knights within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 73% UCF Knights within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 64% UCF Knights Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 36% Hit Showing 3 of 12 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1503 vs 1320
-17.6%p Points per game
36.3 vs 38.8
+2.5%p
Head to head Georgia State Panthers UCF Knights
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
DJ Riles receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 UCF Knights within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 2.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% UCF Knights within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 2.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
64% UCF Knights within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Georgia State Panthers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ UCF Knights within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Georgia State Panthers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Georgia State Panthers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Georgia State Panthers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Georgia State Panthers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 30/45 Miss
64% Both total runs 75.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 75.5 Over· Totals Over UCF Knights Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1503 vs 1320 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 38.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 44/31 Hit
36% player stat32 DJ Riles receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodshaun Dorsey receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Grant Hollier receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodshaun Dorsey 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Taevion Swint rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Waden Charles receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lanear McCrary Jr. rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cameran Brown rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cameran Brown pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Landen Chambers rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Alonza Barnett III pass yds 119.5 Under· Pass Yds Under DJ Riles 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Waden Charles 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Waden Charles 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Derry 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Derry 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Alonza Barnett III pass yds 119.5 Over· Pass Yds Over DJ Riles 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Landen Chambers rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cameran Brown pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cameran Brown rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Taevion Swint rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Waden Charles receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lanear McCrary Jr. rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodshaun Dorsey 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Grant Hollier receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Derry receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ric'Darious Farmer receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rodshaun Dorsey receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Riles receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Georgia State Panthers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points UCF Knights team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points UCF Knights Team pass yds 139.5 Over· Team Pass Yds UCF Knights Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Georgia State Panthers Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia State Panthers Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.