Houston Christian Huskies at North Texas Mean Green — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Christian Huskies 28%
North Texas Mean Green 72%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1634 vs 1535 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.5 vs 32.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1634 vs 1535
+12.3%p Points per game
39.5 vs 32.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Houston Christian Huskies North Texas Mean Green
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 62%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 161yds (per game 40.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 42.2· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 37.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 North Texas Mean Green Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1634 vs 1535 (50% blend)· Points per game 39.5 vs 32.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 63/15 Hit
72% Both total runs 71.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 71.5 Under· Totals Under Houston Christian Huskies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/64 Miss
28% Winning margin8 Houston Christian Huskies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% North Texas Mean Green wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Houston Christian Huskies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Houston Christian Huskies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Houston Christian Huskies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ North Texas Mean Green wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 JM Josiah Martin receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 161yds (per game 40.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 42.2· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 37.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
62% Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Corri Milliner receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Ryan Wallace receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jahiem White rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brendon Haygood rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamaal Hall II receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tayven Jackson pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Champ Dozier rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Harris rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cutter Stewart pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Ja'Ryan Wallace 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jahiem White 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jahiem White 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Stevenson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ja'Ryan Wallace 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cutter Stewart pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tayven Jackson pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Champ Dozier rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Elijah Harris rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jahiem White rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brendon Haygood rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jamaal Hall II receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Justin Stevenson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Ryan Wallace receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Corri Milliner receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josiah Martin receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 North Texas Mean Green team runs 39.5 Over· Team Points Houston Christian Huskies team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Houston Christian Huskies Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Texas Mean Green Team pass yds 299.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Christian Huskies Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds North Texas Mean Green Team rush yds 194.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.