Houston Christian Huskies at North Texas Mean Green — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Christian Huskies 29%
North Texas Mean Green 71%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 40.6 vs 32.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
40.6 vs 32.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Houston Christian Huskies North Texas Mean Green
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Corri Milliner receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 North Texas Mean Green Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 40.6 vs 32.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 63/15 Hit
71% Both total runs 73.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 73.5 Over· Totals Over Houston Christian Huskies Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/64 Miss
29% Winning margin8 Houston Christian Huskies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 8.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% North Texas Mean Green wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.6 vs 32.4 → expected margin 8.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
62% Houston Christian Huskies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Houston Christian Huskies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Houston Christian Huskies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 North Texas Mean Green wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Corri Milliner receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Justin Stevenson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jahiem White rush yds 99.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Max Reese receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Ryan Wallace receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jamaal Hall II receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Champ Dozier rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Elijah Harris rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cutter Stewart pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tayven Jackson pass yds 219.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jahiem White 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ja'Ryan Wallace 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Justin Stevenson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Ja'Ryan Wallace 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Tayven Jackson pass yds 219.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jahiem White 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cutter Stewart pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Champ Dozier rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Elijah Harris rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brendon Haygood rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jamaal Hall II receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jahiem White rush yds 99.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Max Reese receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Ryan Wallace receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Justin Stevenson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Corri Milliner receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trayjen Llanas-Wilcox receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamaal Hall II 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 North Texas Mean Green team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Houston Christian Huskies team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points North Texas Mean Green Team pass yds 299.5 Over· Team Pass Yds North Texas Mean Green Team rush yds 204.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Houston Christian Huskies Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Christian Huskies Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.