Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern Eagles — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Houston Cougars 85%
Georgia Southern Eagles 15%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1341 vs 1535
+11.2%p Points per game
23.3 vs 44.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Houston Cougars Georgia Southern Eagles
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Ashton Hollins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Dallas receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Houston Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.5 vs 23.3 → expected margin 21.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
87% Houston Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.5 vs 23.3 → expected margin 21.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
81% Houston Cougars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Houston Cougars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Georgia Southern Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Georgia Southern Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Georgia Southern Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Georgia Southern Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Houston Cougars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/29 Hit
85% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Georgia Southern Eagles Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1341 vs 1535 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.3 vs 44.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 28/43 Miss
15% player stat32 Ashton Hollins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Dallas receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamarian Samuel rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Dallas 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under River Helms receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amare Thomas receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amare Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Max Johnson pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under River Helms 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Makhi Hughes rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under David Mbadinga rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keisean Henderson pass yds 89.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Keisean Henderson pass yds 89.5 Over· Pass Yds Over David Mbadinga rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Max Johnson pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over River Helms 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Makhi Hughes rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over River Helms receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Amare Thomas receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Amare Thomas 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jamarian Samuel rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Dallas 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Dallas receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ashton Hollins receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Houston Cougars team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Georgia Southern Eagles team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Houston Cougars Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Southern Eagles Team pass yds 299.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Southern Eagles Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Houston Cougars Team rush yds 249.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.