Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 12:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Houston Cougars 27%
Texas Tech Red Raiders 73%
Locked before start
Texas Tech Red Raiders Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 73% Hit Texas Tech Red Raiders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 34% Houston Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 87% Showing 3 of 20 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1860 vs 1535 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 44.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1860 vs 1535
+23.8%p Points per game
36.3 vs 44.5
-4.0%p
Head to head Houston Cougars Texas Tech Red Raiders
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cameron Dickey rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Makhi Hughes rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Houston Cougars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.5 vs 36.3 → expected margin 8.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
87% Houston Cougars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.5 vs 36.3 → expected margin 8.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
81% Houston Cougars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Houston Cougars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Texas Tech Red Raiders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Texas Tech Red Raiders within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Texas Tech Red Raiders Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1860 vs 1535 (50% blend)· Points per game 36.3 vs 44.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 28/27 Hit
73% Both total runs 80.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 80.5 Under· Totals Under Houston Cougars Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/29 Miss
27% player stat32 Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cameron Dickey rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Makhi Hughes rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kenny Johnson receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Coy Eakin receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amare Thomas receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Quinten Joyner rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Keisean Henderson pass yds 124.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Will Hammond pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kenny Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Amare Thomas 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Coy Eakin 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Coy Eakin 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Amare Thomas 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Kenny Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Will Hammond pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Re'Shaun Sanford II rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Quinten Joyner rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Keisean Henderson pass yds 124.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Patrick Overmyer 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Re'Shaun Sanford II receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Patrick Overmyer receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Coy Eakin receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Amare Thomas receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kenny Johnson receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makhi Hughes rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cameron Dickey rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Malcolm Simmons receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Houston Cougars team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Texas Tech Red Raiders team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Texas Tech Red Raiders Team rush yds 154.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas Tech Red Raiders Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Cougars Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Houston Cougars Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.