Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State Buckeyes — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Illinois Fighting Illini 9%
Ohio State Buckeyes 91%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2044 vs 1577 (50% blend)· Points per game 45.0 vs 34.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
2044 vs 1577
+27.0%p Points per game
45.0 vs 34.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Illinois Fighting Illini Ohio State Buckeyes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 165yds (per game 41.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 42.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 47.9 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Brandon Inniss receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Kobi Jackson rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Ohio State Buckeyes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2044 vs 1577 (50% blend)· Points per game 45.0 vs 34.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/20 Hit
91% Both total runs 79.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 79.5 Over· Totals Over Illinois Fighting Illini Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 19/43 Miss
9% Winning margin8 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 45.0 vs 34.0 → expected margin 11.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
69% Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Illinois Fighting Illini within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Illinois Fighting Illini within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Illinois Fighting Illini within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ohio State Buckeyes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Illinois Fighting Illini within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 DM Devin McCuin receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 165yds (per game 41.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 42.7· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 47.9 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Brandon Inniss receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ja'Kobi Jackson rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ty Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hudson Clement receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bo Jackson rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jeremiah Smith receiving yds 109.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aidan Laughery rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Collin Dixon receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Katin Houser rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Julian Sayin pass yds 274.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Katin Houser pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Devin McCuin 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Collin Dixon 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Smith 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Jeremiah Smith 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Devin McCuin 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Collin Dixon 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Hudson Clement 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Katin Houser pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Julian Sayin pass yds 274.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Katin Houser rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Collin Dixon receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bo Jackson rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jeremiah Smith receiving yds 109.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aidan Laughery rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hudson Clement receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ja'Kobi Jackson rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ty Robinson receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Devin McCuin receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brandon Inniss receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Ohio State Buckeyes team runs 45.5 Over· Team Points Illinois Fighting Illini team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Ohio State Buckeyes Team pass yds 409.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Illinois Fighting Illini Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Illinois Fighting Illini Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ohio State Buckeyes Team rush yds 174.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.