Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State Bobcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Incarnate Word Cardinals 45%
Texas State Bobcats 55%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 36.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
36.3 vs 36.0
+0.3%p
Head to head Incarnate Word Cardinals Texas State Bobcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Zach Phipps receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kylen Evans receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Incarnate Word Cardinals within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
82% Incarnate Word Cardinals within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
74% Incarnate Word Cardinals within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Incarnate Word Cardinals within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Texas State Bobcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Texas State Bobcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Texas State Bobcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Texas State Bobcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 Zach Phipps receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kylen Evans receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Zechariah Sample receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Price Morgan receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Champagne 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden Hibbler rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Champagne receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Emmett Brown pass yds 254.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Lontrell Turner rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brad Jackson pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Price Morgan 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Price Morgan 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Brad Jackson pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Chris Dawn Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Lontrell Turner rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Emmett Brown pass yds 254.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Davian Jackson rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jayden Hibbler rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Champagne receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Torrance Burgess Jr. rush yds 104.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Zechariah Sample receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kylen Evans 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Price Morgan receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Champagne 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Kylen Evans receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Dawn Jr. receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zach Phipps receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Texas State Bobcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 36.3 vs 36.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 63/11 Hit
55% Both total runs 72.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 72.5 Under· Totals Under Incarnate Word Cardinals Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/64 Miss
45% Team stats6 Texas State Bobcats team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Incarnate Word Cardinals team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Texas State Bobcats Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Incarnate Word Cardinals Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Incarnate Word Cardinals Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Texas State Bobcats Team rush yds 314.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.