Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet Knights — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 12:00 AM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Indiana Hoosiers 97%
Rutgers Scarlet Knights 3%
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
33.8 vs 43.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Indiana Hoosiers Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jourdin Houston receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Duff receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Indiana Hoosiers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 77.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 77.5 Under· Totals Under Rutgers Scarlet Knights Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 33.8 vs 43.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 Indiana Hoosiers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 43.5 vs 33.8 → expected margin 9.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 9.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
62% Indiana Hoosiers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Indiana Hoosiers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Indiana Hoosiers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Rutgers Scarlet Knights within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Jourdin Houston receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under KJ Duff receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jourdin Houston 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Charlie Becker receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aiden Gibson rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Ben Black III receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Shazz Preston receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dylan Lonergan pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Hoover pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Dylan Lonergan rush yds 24.5 Under· Rush Yds Under KJ Duff 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Charlie Becker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Charlie Becker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under KJ Duff 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dylan Lonergan rush yds 24.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Josh Hoover pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Dylan Lonergan pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nick Marsh 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Lee Beebe Jr. rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Aiden Gibson rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ben Black III receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Shazz Preston receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Turbo Richard rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Charlie Becker receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over KJ Duff receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jourdin Houston 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jourdin Houston receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nick Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Rutgers Scarlet Knights team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points Indiana Hoosiers team runs 43.5 Over· Team Points Rutgers Scarlet Knights Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Indiana Hoosiers Team rush yds 259.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Rutgers Scarlet Knights Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Indiana Hoosiers Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.