Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverines — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Iowa Hawkeyes 83%
Michigan Wolverines 17%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1739 vs 1841
+4.0%p Points per game
25.3 vs 32.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Iowa Hawkeyes Michigan Wolverines
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 396yds (per game 99.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 71.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 63.0 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Iowa Hawkeyes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/20 Hit
83% Both total runs 58.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 58.5 Over· Totals Over Michigan Wolverines Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1739 vs 1841 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.3 vs 32.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 19/21 Miss
17% Winning margin8 Michigan Wolverines within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
67% Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Michigan Wolverines within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Michigan Wolverines within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Michigan Wolverines within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Iowa Hawkeyes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 JB JJ Buchanan receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 396yds (per game 99.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 71.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 63.0 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Marshall rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kamari Moulton rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Savion Hiter rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Andrew Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tony Diaz receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Savion Hiter receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braeden Jackson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hank Brown pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Tommy Carr pass yds 84.5 Under· Pass Yds Under JJ Buchanan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Tony Diaz 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over JJ Buchanan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tony Diaz 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Reece Vander Zee 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Tommy Carr pass yds 84.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Hank Brown pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Braeden Jackson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Savion Hiter receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tony Diaz receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Savion Hiter rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Andrew Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Marshall rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kamari Moulton rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Reece Vander Zee receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Addison Ostrenga receiving yds 27.5 Over· Rec Yds Over JJ Buchanan receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Iowa Hawkeyes team runs 32.5 Over· Team Points Michigan Wolverines team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Michigan Wolverines Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Michigan Wolverines Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team pass yds 189.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Iowa Hawkeyes Team rush yds 189.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.