Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls — Game center Final NCAA Football
Oct 7 (Wed) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Jacksonville State Gamecocks 76%
Kennesaw State Owls 24%
Locked before start
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 76% Hit Kennesaw State Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 73% Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 63% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 4-2 vs 1-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1287 vs 1432
+7.5%p Points per game
21.8 vs 27.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Jacksonville State Gamecocks Kennesaw State Owls
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 63%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning season 5games 16x (per game 3.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.89 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Rickie Collins rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Zion Booker receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-2 vs 1-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 27/27 Hit
76% Both total runs 49.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 49.5 Over· Totals Over Kennesaw State Owls Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 4-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1287 vs 1432 (50% blend)· Points per game 21.8 vs 27.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
runs 26/28 Miss
24% Winning margin8 Kennesaw State Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Kennesaw State Owls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Kennesaw State Owls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Kennesaw State Owls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 DC Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 5games 16x (per game 3.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.89 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
63% Darius Cannon receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rickie Collins rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Zion Booker receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Latrelle Murrell rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Likely rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brayden Munroe receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Rogers receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caden Creel rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Creel pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rickie Collins pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brayden Munroe 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Zion Booker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Zion Booker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Rickie Collins pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Brayden Munroe 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Caden Creel pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Caden Creel rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Rogers receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brayden Munroe receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Likely rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Latrelle Murrell rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Zion Booker receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rickie Collins rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Darius Cannon receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Kennesaw State Owls team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Jacksonville State Gamecocks team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Kennesaw State Owls Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kennesaw State Owls Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.