James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 10:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate James Madison Dukes 97%
Old Dominion Monarchs 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1279 vs 1793
+25.9%p Points per game
22.3 vs 44.8
+4.0%p
Head to head James Madison Dukes Old Dominion Monarchs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Michael Scott receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corey Scott receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 James Madison Dukes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 46/21 Hit
97% Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Old Dominion Monarchs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1279 vs 1793 (50% blend)· Points per game 22.3 vs 44.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 20/47 Miss
3% Winning margin8 James Madison Dukes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 22.3 → expected margin 22.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
89% James Madison Dukes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 22.3 → expected margin 22.5 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
83% James Madison Dukes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ James Madison Dukes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Old Dominion Monarchs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Old Dominion Monarchs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Old Dominion Monarchs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Old Dominion Monarchs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Michael Scott receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corey Scott receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JJ Harrell receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cole Keller receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devin Roche rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Corey Scott 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Quinn Henicle pass yds 134.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Quinn Henicle rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Camden Coleman pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TJ Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Keller 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Rodriguez 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Rodriguez 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Keller 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over TJ Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Quinn Henicle rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Camden Coleman pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Quinn Henicle pass yds 134.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Corey Scott 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Devin Roche rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JJ Harrell receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cole Keller receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TJ Johnson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Rodriguez receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Corey Scott receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Scott receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 James Madison Dukes team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Old Dominion Monarchs team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Old Dominion Monarchs Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds James Madison Dukes Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Old Dominion Monarchs Team pass yds 159.5 Over· Team Pass Yds James Madison Dukes Team rush yds 224.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.