James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 20 (Sun) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate James Madison Dukes 97%
San Diego State Aztecs 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1415 vs 1793
+21.7%p Points per game
23.0 vs 44.8
+4.0%p
Head to head James Madison Dukes San Diego State Aztecs
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Corey Scott receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacob Bostick receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 James Madison Dukes Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/14 Hit
97% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under San Diego State Aztecs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1415 vs 1793 (50% blend)· Points per game 23.0 vs 44.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/27 Miss
3% Winning margin8 James Madison Dukes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 23.0 → expected margin 21.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
88% James Madison Dukes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 23.0 → expected margin 21.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
82% James Madison Dukes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ James Madison Dukes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ San Diego State Aztecs within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 San Diego State Aztecs within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Corey Scott receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jacob Bostick receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javion Kinnard receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lucky Sutton rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Michael Scott receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corey Scott 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Keller 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Keller receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Camden Coleman pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jayden Denegal pass yds 154.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Javion Kinnard rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden Denegal pass yds 154.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Javion Kinnard rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Camden Coleman pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Napier 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Keller receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Michael Scott receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Corey Scott 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Keller 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Lucky Sutton rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nathan Acevedo receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jacob Bostick receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javion Kinnard receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Nathan Acevedo 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Corey Scott receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 James Madison Dukes team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points San Diego State Aztecs team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points San Diego State Aztecs Team pass yds 149.5 Over· Team Pass Yds San Diego State Aztecs Team rush yds 134.5 Over· Team Rush Yds James Madison Dukes Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds James Madison Dukes Team rush yds 224.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.