Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Kansas State Wildcats 30%
Cincinnati Bearcats 70%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1525 vs 1679 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 40.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1525 vs 1679
-8.2%p
Head to head Kansas State Wildcats Cincinnati Bearcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
JV Gibson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malachi Henry receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Avery Johnson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Kansas State Wildcats within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
83% Kansas State Wildcats within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% Kansas State Wildcats within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Kansas State Wildcats within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Cincinnati Bearcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1525 vs 1679 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 40.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/27 Hit
70% Both total runs 81.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 81.5 Over· Totals Over Kansas State Wildcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 26/32 Miss
30% player stat32 JV Gibson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Malachi Henry receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Avery Johnson rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Derrick Salley Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Manning 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Manning receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Garrett Oakley receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Avery Johnson pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rodney Fields Jr. rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cole Tabb rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JC French IV pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Garrett Oakley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over JV Gibson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under JV Gibson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Garrett Oakley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under JC French IV pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cole Tabb rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Avery Johnson pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rodney Fields Jr. rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Manning receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Garrett Oakley receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Avery Johnson rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Derrick Salley Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Josh Manning 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over JV Gibson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malachi Henry receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Cincinnati Bearcats team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Kansas State Wildcats team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Cincinnati Bearcats Team rush yds 299.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Cincinnati Bearcats Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kansas State Wildcats Team pass yds 269.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kansas State Wildcats Team rush yds 244.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.