Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red Wolves — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Kennesaw State Owls 25%
Arkansas State Red Wolves 75%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1320 vs 1284 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.0 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1320 vs 1284
+7.6%p Points per game
25.0 vs 21.8
+3.2%p
Head to head Kennesaw State Owls Arkansas State Red Wolves
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Rogers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brayden Munroe receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Kennesaw State Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Kennesaw State Owls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Kennesaw State Owls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Kennesaw State Owls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Arkansas State Red Wolves wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Arkansas State Red Wolves wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Arkansas State Red Wolves wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Arkansas State Red Wolves wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Arkansas State Red Wolves Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1320 vs 1284 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.0 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/15 Hit
75% Both total runs 46.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 46.5 Under· Totals Under Kennesaw State Owls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 2-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 14/18 Miss
25% player stat32 Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Javon Rogers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brayden Munroe receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Booker receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Booker 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Brayden Munroe 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under James Lee rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rickie Collins rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Latrelle Murrell rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Solomon Baggett rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rickie Collins pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Chauncy Cobb 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Trey Owens pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rickie Collins pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Solomon Baggett rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hunter Summers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Latrelle Murrell rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over James Lee rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chauncy Cobb receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Bonelli receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rickie Collins rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Zion Booker receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zion Booker 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Brayden Munroe 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Brayden Munroe receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Rogers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Summers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Kennesaw State Owls team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Arkansas State Red Wolves team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Kennesaw State Owls Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Arkansas State Red Wolves Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Kennesaw State Owls Team rush yds 184.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.