Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee Volunteers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Kennesaw State Owls 3%
Tennessee Volunteers 97%
Locked before start
Tennessee Volunteers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 97% Hit Tennessee Volunteers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ 83% Tennessee Volunteers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ 76% Showing 3 of 18 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1776 vs 1284 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.0 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1776 vs 1284
+27.4%p Points per game
40.0 vs 21.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Kennesaw State Owls Tennessee Volunteers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braylon Staley receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Radarious Jackson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Tennessee Volunteers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1776 vs 1284 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.0 vs 21.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 42/10 Hit
97% Both total runs 61.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 61.5 Under· Totals Under Kennesaw State Owls Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 9/43 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Tennessee Volunteers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.0 vs 21.8 → expected margin 18.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
83% Tennessee Volunteers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 40.0 vs 21.8 → expected margin 18.2 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
76% Tennessee Volunteers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Tennessee Volunteers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Kennesaw State Owls within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Kennesaw State Owls within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Kennesaw State Owls within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Kennesaw State Owls within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braylon Staley receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Radarious Jackson receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Zion Booker receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Daune Morris rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brayden Munroe receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mike Matthews 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under DeSean Bishop rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braylon Staley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Javon Rogers receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rickie Collins rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Latrelle Murrell rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Faizon Brandon pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Rickie Collins pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Brayden Munroe 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Zion Booker 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Zion Booker 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Brayden Munroe 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Faizon Brandon pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Rickie Collins pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Latrelle Murrell rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rickie Collins rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Rogers receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeSean Bishop rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braylon Staley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mike Matthews 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Brayden Munroe receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Daune Morris rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braylon Staley receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Radarious Jackson receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Zion Booker receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mike Matthews receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Kennesaw State Owls team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Tennessee Volunteers team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Kennesaw State Owls Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Kennesaw State Owls Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tennessee Volunteers Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tennessee Volunteers Team rush yds 269.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.