Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggies — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:40 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Kentucky Wildcats 32%
Texas A&M Aggies 67%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1742 vs 1553 (50% blend)· Points per game 31.3 vs 34.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1742 vs 1553
+18.0%p Points per game
31.3 vs 34.5
-3.2%p
Head to head Kentucky Wildcats Texas A&M Aggies
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
KJ Edwards rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Craver receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenny Darby receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Texas A&M Aggies within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Texas A&M Aggies within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.2 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% Texas A&M Aggies within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Texas A&M Aggies within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Kentucky Wildcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Kentucky Wildcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Texas A&M Aggies Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1742 vs 1553 (50% blend)· Points per game 31.3 vs 34.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 21/32 Miss
67% Both total runs 65.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 65.5 Under· Totals Under Kentucky Wildcats Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/22 Hit
32% player stat32 KJ Edwards rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mario Craver receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kenny Darby receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Henry Boyer receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Willie Rodriguez receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Terry Bussey receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Isaiah Horton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rueben Owens II rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Baxter rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kenny Darby 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kenny Minchey pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jason Patterson rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Marcel Reed pass yds 194.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Willie Rodriguez 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Willie Rodriguez 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mario Craver 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Marcel Reed pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Isaiah Horton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kenny Minchey pass yds 194.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jason Patterson rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rueben Owens II rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Baxter rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kenny Darby 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaiah Horton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terry Bussey receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Willie Rodriguez receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Henry Boyer receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over KJ Edwards rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mario Craver receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kenny Darby receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Kentucky Wildcats team runs 34.5 Over· Team Points Texas A&M Aggies team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Kentucky Wildcats Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Texas A&M Aggies Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Kentucky Wildcats Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.