Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 24 (Thu) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Liberty Flames 69%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 31%
Locked before start
Liberty Flames Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability 69% Hit Clayton Coppock Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 61% Clayton Coppock Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under 58% Showing 3 of 12 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1270 vs 1725
+24.4%p Points per game
25.0 vs 30.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Liberty Flames Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under 66%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 8x (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.3· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 2.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Clayton Coppock Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Coastal Carolina Chanticleers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Liberty Flames wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Liberty Flames wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Liberty Flames wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Liberty Flames wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Liberty Flames Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/18 Hit
69% Both total runs 55.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 55.5 Under· Totals Under Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1270 vs 1725 (50% blend)· Points per game 25.0 vs 30.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 17/35 Miss
31% player stat32 JP Jamari Person 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 8x (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.3· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 2.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
66% Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Makai Jackson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Clayton Coppock Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dominic Lee-Knicely rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Karmello English 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Darius Copeland receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tristian Gardner receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jamari Person receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Clayton Coppock Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Colton Hinton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kam Davis rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jevon Edwards rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deuce Bailey pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deshawn Purdie pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deshawn Purdie pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Deuce Bailey pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jevon Edwards rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Colton Hinton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kam Davis rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Peyton Jones rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Clayton Coppock Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jamari Person receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tristian Gardner receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dominic Lee-Knicely rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Karmello English 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Darius Copeland receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Clayton Coppock Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Makai Jackson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Makai Jackson receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jamari Person 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Liberty Flames team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Coastal Carolina Chanticleers team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Liberty Flames Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Coastal Carolina Chanticleers Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Liberty Flames Team rush yds 214.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.