Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 10:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns 95%
Charlotte 49ers 5%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1123 vs 1443
+19.1%p Points per game
19.5 vs 30.8
+4.0%p
Head to head Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Charlotte 49ers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 8x (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.9· opponent defense matchup ×1.05 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Derrick Eley receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 34/8 Hit
95% Both total runs 50.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 50.5 Over· Totals Over Charlotte 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1123 vs 1443 (50% blend)· Points per game 19.5 vs 30.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/35 Miss
5% Winning margin8 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 30.8 vs 19.5 → expected margin 11.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
71% Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Charlotte 49ers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Charlotte 49ers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Charlotte 49ers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Charlotte 49ers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 LS Landon Strother 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 8x (per game 2.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 2.9· opponent defense matchup ×1.05 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
64% Derrick Eley receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under KeDarius Wade receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Henry Rutledge rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Russell Babineaux receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Barnes receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caden Jensen receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cole Gonzales pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Barnes 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Daniel Beale pass yds 104.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Khamani Alexander rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Russell Babineaux 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Khamani Alexander rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Russell Babineaux 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Daniel Beale pass yds 104.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaden Barnes 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Gonzales pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jaden Barnes receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caden Jensen receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Henry Rutledge rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Russell Babineaux receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darrell Smith rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over KeDarius Wade receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Anthony Reagan Jr. rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Derrick Eley receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Landon Strother 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns team runs 30.5 Over· Team Points Charlotte 49ers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Charlotte 49ers Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Charlotte 49ers Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.