Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor Bears — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 18%
Baylor Bears 82%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1537 vs 1377 (50% blend)· Points per game 29.8 vs 37.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1537 vs 1377
+16.3%p Points per game
29.8 vs 37.7
-4.0%p
Head to head Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Baylor Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 9x (per game 2.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Gavin Freeman receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Mickens receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Baylor Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1537 vs 1377 (50% blend)· Points per game 29.8 vs 37.7 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 36/20 Hit
82% Both total runs 67.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 67.5 Under· Totals Under Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 19/37 Miss
18% Winning margin8 Baylor Bears within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.9 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
66% Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Baylor Bears within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Baylor Bears within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Baylor Bears within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat32 LI Louis Brown IV 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Low
season 4games 9x (per game 2.3)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 3.0· opponent defense matchup ×1.02 → expected 3.1 basis tail-aware count model(spread φ1.35)
63% Gavin Freeman receiving yds 69.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Mickens receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Talyn Shettron receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Louis Brown IV receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrew Burnette rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jayden McGowan receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Eli Finley receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nate Bennett pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Caden Knighten rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Blake Baker pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Gavin Freeman 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Kukuk rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Eli Finley 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jalen Mickens 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jalen Mickens 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Eli Finley 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trey Kukuk rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Gavin Freeman 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Caden Knighten rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Blake Baker pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Nate Bennett pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jayden McGowan receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Eli Finley receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Louis Brown IV receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Andrew Burnette rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dawson Pendergrass rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Talyn Shettron receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Gavin Freeman receiving yds 69.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Mickens receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Louis Brown IV 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Baylor Bears team runs 29.5 Over· Team Points Louisiana Tech Bulldogs team runs 37.5 Over· Team Points Baylor Bears Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Baylor Bears Team rush yds 169.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.