LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate LSU Tigers 27%
Ole Miss Rebels 73%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1776 vs 1868 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.5 vs 38.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
35.5 vs 38.8
-3.3%p CFBD strength index
1776 vs 1868
-3.1%p
Head to head LSU Tigers Ole Miss Rebels
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dilin Jones rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kewan Lacy rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Ole Miss Rebels within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 3.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
77% Ole Miss Rebels within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 3.3 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
68% Ole Miss Rebels within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Ole Miss Rebels within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 LSU Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ LSU Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ LSU Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ LSU Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Ole Miss Rebels Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1776 vs 1868 (50% blend)· Points per game 35.5 vs 38.8 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 32/25 Hit
73% Both total runs 74.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 74.5 Under· Totals Under LSU Tigers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/33 Miss
27% player stat32 Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jackson Harris receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dilin Jones rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kewan Lacy rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Traylon Ray receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trinidad Chambliss rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Deuce Alexander receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Horatio Fields 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caleb Odom receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Leavitt pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dilin Jones receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Trinidad Chambliss pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deuce Alexander 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Deuce Alexander 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Trinidad Chambliss pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Leavitt pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dilin Jones receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Odom receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trinidad Chambliss rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Deuce Alexander receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Horatio Fields 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kewan Lacy rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Traylon Ray receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dilin Jones rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Harris receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 LSU Tigers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points Ole Miss Rebels team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points LSU Tigers Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Ole Miss Rebels Team pass yds 284.5 Over· Team Pass Yds LSU Tigers Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Ole Miss Rebels Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.