Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 7:45 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Marshall Thundering Herd 3%
James Madison Dukes 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 44.8 vs 23.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
44.8 vs 23.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Marshall Thundering Herd James Madison Dukes
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Cole Keller receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Toby Payne receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 James Madison Dukes Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 44.8 vs 23.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 68.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 68.5 Under· Totals Under Marshall Thundering Herd Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 4-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 James Madison Dukes wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 23.5 → expected margin 21.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
87% James Madison Dukes wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 44.8 vs 23.5 → expected margin 21.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
81% James Madison Dukes wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ James Madison Dukes wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Marshall Thundering Herd within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Marshall Thundering Herd within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Marshall Thundering Herd within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Marshall Thundering Herd within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Cole Keller receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Toby Payne receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Michael Scott receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Corey Scott receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Camden Coleman pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Corey Scott 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Keller 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Toby Payne 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Toby Payne 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Camden Coleman pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Corey Scott 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cole Keller 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over George Pettaway rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Nick Herman rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Corey Scott receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Michael Scott receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Toby Payne receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cole Keller receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 James Madison Dukes team runs 44.5 Over· Team Points Marshall Thundering Herd team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Marshall Thundering Herd Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Marshall Thundering Herd Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds James Madison Dukes Team pass yds 254.5 Over· Team Pass Yds James Madison Dukes Team rush yds 224.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.