Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 10:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Marshall Thundering Herd 70%
Missouri State Bears 30%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1292 vs 1397
+4.2%p
Head to head Marshall Thundering Herd Missouri State Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Isaiah Myers receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Miller receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Marshall Thundering Herd within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 0.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
84% Marshall Thundering Herd within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 0.5 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% Marshall Thundering Herd within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Marshall Thundering Herd within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Missouri State Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Missouri State Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Missouri State Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Missouri State Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Marshall Thundering Herd Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 30/25 Hit
70% Both total runs 47.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 47.5 Under· Totals Under Missouri State Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1292 vs 1397 (50% blend)· Points per game 24.0 vs 23.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 24/31 Miss
30% player stat32 Isaiah Myers receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mekhi Miller receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Toby Payne receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Skyler Locklear pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Myers 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Toby Payne 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jmariyae Robinson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Toby Payne 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Isaiah Myers 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Carlos Del Rio-Wilson pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jo'Shon Barbie rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Skyler Locklear pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Breezy Dubar rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Carlos Del Rio-Wilson rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ramone Green Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Xayvion Turner-Bradshaw receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over De'Andre Tamarez receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jmariyae Robinson receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Toby Payne receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mekhi Miller receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Myers receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Marshall Thundering Herd team runs 23.5 Over· Team Points Missouri State Bears team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Missouri State Bears Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Missouri State Bears Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Marshall Thundering Herd Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Marshall Thundering Herd Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.