Massachusetts Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 27 (Sun) · 1:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Massachusetts Minutemen 76%
Sacramento State Hornets 24%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 4-0 vs 1-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1185 vs 1188
-4.4%p Points per game
17.6 vs 36.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Massachusetts Minutemen Sacramento State Hornets
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Onterrio Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Raiden Brown receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.Y. Harding receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 17.6 → expected margin 18.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
85% Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 36.3 vs 17.6 → expected margin 18.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
77% Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Massachusetts Minutemen wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Sacramento State Hornets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Sacramento State Hornets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Massachusetts Minutemen Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 4-0 vs 1-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/7 Hit
76% Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under Sacramento State Hornets Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 4-0 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1185 vs 1188 (50% blend)· Points per game 17.6 vs 36.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 6/36 Miss
24% player stat32 Onterrio Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Raiden Brown receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.Y. Harding receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.Y. Harding 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Isaiah Ene rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Daniel Swinney rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Joseph Griffin Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jabari Lewis receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Coleman receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Matt Coleman 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Elijah Faulkner rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Curtis Kimmons IV rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jackson Sharman pass yds 169.5 Under· Pass Yds Under William Watson III pass yds 149.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Joseph Griffin Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Onterrio Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Onterrio Smith Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Joseph Griffin Jr. 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over William Watson III pass yds 149.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jackson Sharman pass yds 169.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Matt Coleman receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Matt Coleman 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Elijah Faulkner rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Curtis Kimmons IV rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jabari Lewis receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Ene rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Daniel Swinney rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Joseph Griffin Jr. receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Raiden Brown receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.Y. Harding receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.Y. Harding 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Onterrio Smith Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Sacramento State Hornets team runs 17.5 Over· Team Points Massachusetts Minutemen team runs 36.5 Over· Team Points Massachusetts Minutemen Team pass yds 134.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Sacramento State Hornets Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Massachusetts Minutemen Team rush yds 219.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Sacramento State Hornets Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.