McNeese Cowboys at LSU Tigers — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 11:45 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model McNeese Cowboys 9%
LSU Tigers 91%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.8 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
38.8 vs 28.0
+4.0%p
Head to head McNeese Cowboys LSU Tigers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 5games 311yds (per game 62.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 54.2· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 47.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Jackson Harris receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 LSU Tigers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-3 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 38.8 vs 28.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
91% Both total runs 66.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 66.5 Under· Totals Under McNeese Cowboys Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-3 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
9% Winning margin8 LSU Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 38.8 vs 28.0 → expected margin 10.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
68% McNeese Cowboys within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 LSU Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ LSU Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ McNeese Cowboys within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 McNeese Cowboys within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 LSU Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ McNeese Cowboys within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 EE Elisha Edwards receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 5games 311yds (per game 62.2)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 54.2· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 47.7 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
64% Jackson Harris receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Devin Lippold rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dilin Jones rush yds 79.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Marquez Davis rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Curtis Deville receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kameran Senegal receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dilin Jones receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sam Leavitt pass yds 249.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Devin Lippold pass yds 144.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Elisha Edwards 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Curtis Deville 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jackson Harris 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Curtis Deville 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Elisha Edwards 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Devin Lippold pass yds 144.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Sam Leavitt pass yds 249.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Sam Leavitt rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dilin Jones receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dilin Jones rush yds 79.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Trey'Dez Green receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Marquez Davis rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Curtis Deville receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kameran Senegal receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Devin Lippold rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jackson Harris receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Trey'Dez Green 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Elisha Edwards receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 LSU Tigers team runs 38.5 Over· Team Points McNeese Cowboys team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points McNeese Cowboys Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds LSU Tigers Team pass yds 329.5 Over· Team Pass Yds McNeese Cowboys Team rush yds 164.5 Over· Team Rush Yds LSU Tigers Team rush yds 229.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.