Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ers — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 3:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Memphis Tigers 97%
Charlotte 49ers 3%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
19.5 vs 33.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Memphis Tigers Charlotte 49ers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jaden Barnes receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tychaun Chapman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hunter Tipton receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Memphis Tigers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 0-4 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
97% Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Charlotte 49ers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 0-4 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 19.5 vs 33.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
3% Winning margin8 Memphis Tigers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 33.5 vs 19.5 → expected margin 14.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
76% Memphis Tigers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 33.5 vs 19.5 → expected margin 14.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
67% Memphis Tigers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Charlotte 49ers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Memphis Tigers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Charlotte 49ers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Charlotte 49ers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Charlotte 49ers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Jaden Barnes receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tychaun Chapman receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hunter Tipton receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hunter Tipton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jermane Hayes 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Khamani Alexander rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Derrick Eley receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jermane Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Henry Rutledge rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaylin Carter rush yds 89.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Manny Covey rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cole Gonzales pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Marcus Stokes pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaden Barnes 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaden Barnes 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaylen Hampton 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Cole Gonzales pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Marcus Stokes pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Manny Covey rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Henry Rutledge rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylin Carter rush yds 89.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Khamani Alexander rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaylen Hampton receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Derrick Eley receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jermane Hayes receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Tipton receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Tipton 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jermane Hayes 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaden Barnes receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tychaun Chapman receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Charlotte 49ers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Memphis Tigers team runs 33.5 Over· Team Points Charlotte 49ers Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Memphis Tigers Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Memphis Tigers Team rush yds 269.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Charlotte 49ers Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.