Mercer Bears at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Mercer Bears 67%
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 32%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
27.0 vs 28.6
+1.6%p
Head to head Mercer Bears Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Travion Solomon receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dalen Penson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kevin Roche Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
80% Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Mercer Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Mercer Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Mercer Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Mercer Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Mercer Bears Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 1-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 11/45 Miss
67% Both total runs 55.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 55.5 Under· Totals Under Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 27.0 vs 28.6 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 44/12 Hit
32% player stat32 Travion Solomon receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dalen Penson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kevin Roche Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Devon Caldwell rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Zahmari Palode-Gary rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brayden Smith 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Justice Haynes rush yds 84.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Eric Rasheed receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Allen receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Trelain Maddox rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brayden Smith receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Alberto Mendoza pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jaylen King pass yds 134.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jordan Allen 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kevin Roche Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Eric Rasheed 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Eric Rasheed 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jordan Allen 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Kevin Roche Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jaylen King pass yds 134.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Alberto Mendoza pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Trelain Maddox rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brayden Smith receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Allen receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Justice Haynes rush yds 84.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Eric Rasheed receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dalen Penson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kevin Roche Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Devon Caldwell rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Zahmari Palode-Gary rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brayden Smith 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Travion Solomon receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Mercer Bears team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Team rush yds 139.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Mercer Bears Team rush yds 249.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Mercer Bears Team pass yds 149.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.