Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Mercyhurst Lakers 32%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 67%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 1-3 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.5 vs 17.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
21.5 vs 17.4
+4.0%p
Head to head Mercyhurst Lakers Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Cameron Flowers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Evans receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Camden Lewis receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Mercyhurst Lakers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
79% Mercyhurst Lakers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Mercyhurst Lakers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Mercyhurst Lakers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-3 vs 1-4 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 21.5 vs 17.4 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 52/8 Hit
67% Both total runs 38.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 38.5 Under· Totals Under Mercyhurst Lakers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-4 vs 1-3 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 7/53 Miss
32% player stat32 Cameron Flowers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Evans receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Camden Lewis receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amare Lattimore receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ajay Allen rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Brock Glenn rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jameir Gamble rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CC Ezirim receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dylan Evans 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Alex Gevaudan pass yds 159.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Emanuel Fincher rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Camden Lewis 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Cameron Flowers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jonathan Stafford Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Camden Lewis 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Rodney Tisdale Jr. pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Alex Gevaudan pass yds 159.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Emanuel Fincher rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CC Ezirim receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Evans 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Ajay Allen rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Brock Glenn rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jonathan Stafford Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jameir Gamble rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Amare Lattimore receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Camden Lewis receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cameron Flowers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dylan Evans receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Mercyhurst Lakers team runs 17.5 Over· Team Points Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mercyhurst Lakers Team pass yds 169.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Mercyhurst Lakers Team rush yds 79.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.