Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 7:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Miami (OH) RedHawks 4%
Cincinnati Bearcats 96%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1525 vs 1267 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 28.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1525 vs 1267
+21.3%p Points per game
40.5 vs 28.5
+4.0%p
Head to head Miami (OH) RedHawks Cincinnati Bearcats
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 134yds (per game 33.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 38.8· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 43.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cole Tabb rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Cincinnati Bearcats Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 1-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1525 vs 1267 (50% blend)· Points per game 40.5 vs 28.5 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 35/32 Hit
96% Both total runs 69.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 69.5 Over· Totals Over Miami (OH) RedHawks Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 1-2 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 31/36 Miss
4% Winning margin8 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 40.5 vs 28.5 → expected margin 12.0 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
71% Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Miami (OH) RedHawks within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Miami (OH) RedHawks within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Cincinnati Bearcats wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Miami (OH) RedHawks within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Miami (OH) RedHawks within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 MH Malachi Henry receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 134yds (per game 33.5)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 38.8· opponent defense matchup ×1.12 → expected 43.5 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Cole Tabb rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Braylon Isom receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lazaro Rogers rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Nelson rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Maleek Huggins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lynel Billups-Williams receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Lynel Billups-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under JV Gibson receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under JC French IV pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under David McComb pass yds 259.5 Under· Pass Yds Under JV Gibson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Scoop Smith 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Scoop Smith 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under JV Gibson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over JC French IV pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over David McComb pass yds 259.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Gi'Bran Payne rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over JV Gibson receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Isaiah Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Maleek Huggins receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lynel Billups-Williams receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Lynel Billups-Williams 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Lazaro Rogers rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodney Nelson rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cole Tabb rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Braylon Isom receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Larenzo Fenner receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Malachi Henry receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Cincinnati Bearcats team runs 40.5 Over· Team Points Miami (OH) RedHawks team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points Miami (OH) RedHawks Team pass yds 324.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Cincinnati Bearcats Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Cincinnati Bearcats Team rush yds 284.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Miami (OH) RedHawks Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.