Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting Irish — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Michigan State Spartans 3%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 97%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2084 vs 1510 (50% blend)· Points per game 42.3 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
2084 vs 1510
+28.3%p Points per game
42.3 vs 22.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Michigan State Spartans Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-0 vs 2-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 2084 vs 1510 (50% blend)· Points per game 42.3 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 27/11 Hit
97% Both total runs 64.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 64.5 Under· Totals Under Michigan State Spartans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-1 vs 3-0 — away adjustment applied· stacking -2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 10/28 Miss
3% Winning margin8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 42.3 vs 22.0 → expected margin 20.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
86% Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Low
expected points 42.3 vs 22.0 → expected margin 20.3 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 8+
80% Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Notre Dame Fighting Irish wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Michigan State Spartans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Michigan State Spartans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Michigan State Spartans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Michigan State Spartans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jaziun Patterson rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Micah Gilbert receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Faison receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Micah Gilbert 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Cam Edwards rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under CJ Carr pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jordan Faison 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Jordan Faison 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over CJ Carr pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Cam Edwards rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over CJ Carr rush yds 29.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Micah Gilbert receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Faison receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Micah Gilbert 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Nolan James Jr. rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jaziun Patterson rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaden Greathouse receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish team runs 42.5 Over· Team Points Michigan State Spartans team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team pass yds 239.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Michigan State Spartans Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Notre Dame Fighting Irish Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Michigan State Spartans Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.