Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin Badgers — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:30 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Michigan State Spartans 14%
Wisconsin Badgers 86%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.8 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
31.8 vs 22.0
+4.0%p
Head to head Michigan State Spartans Wisconsin Badgers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 307yds (per game 76.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 60.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Wisconsin Badgers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 31.8 vs 22.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
86% Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under Michigan State Spartans Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
14% Winning margin8 Wisconsin Badgers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 31.8 vs 22.0 → expected margin 9.8 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Michigan State Spartans within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Wisconsin Badgers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Michigan State Spartans within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Wisconsin Badgers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Michigan State Spartans within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Wisconsin Badgers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Michigan State Spartans within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 TH Tyrell Henry receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 307yds (per game 76.8)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 60.5· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 53.2 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Brooks Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Abu Sama III rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jaziun Patterson rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Tyrell Henry 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Jacob Harris receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Colton Joseph pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Darrion Dupree rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam Edwards rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jacob Harris 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Jacob Harris 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Colton Joseph pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Darrion Dupree rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Cam Edwards rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jacob Harris receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Alessio Milivojevic pass yds 164.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Tyrell Henry 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jaziun Patterson rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rodney Bullard Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chrishon McCray 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Abu Sama III rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Brooks Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rodney Bullard Jr. 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Chrishon McCray receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyrell Henry receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jayden Savoury receiving yds 37.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Team stats6 Wisconsin Badgers team runs 31.5 Over· Team Points Michigan State Spartans team runs 22.5 Over· Team Points Wisconsin Badgers Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Michigan State Spartans Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Wisconsin Badgers Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Michigan State Spartans Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.