Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden Gophers — Game center Scheduled NCAA Football
VS
Oct 3 (Sat) · 4:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model Michigan Wolverines 41%
Minnesota Golden Gophers 59%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 35.0 vs 25.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Points per game
35.0 vs 25.3
+4.0%p
Head to head Michigan Wolverines Minnesota Golden Gophers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under 63%
Model probability
View model reasoning season 4games 396yds (per game 99.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 71.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 63.0 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Noah Jennings receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Smith receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Low
expected points 35.0 vs 25.3 → expected margin 9.7 pts; a normal approximation with a ~13-point margin SD gives the chance of winning by 4+
66% Michigan Wolverines within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Michigan Wolverines within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Michigan Wolverines within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Minnesota Golden Gophers wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Michigan Wolverines within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 player stat32 JB JJ Buchanan receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Low
season 4games 396yds (per game 99.0)· sample 얇아 선별된 동일 카테고리 avg 쪽으로 adjusted → 71.6· opponent defense matchup ×0.88 → expected 63.0 basis log정규(shifts계수 0.62)
63% Noah Jennings receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Smith receiving yds 32.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Javon Tracy receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Marshall rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Andrew Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darius Taylor rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javon Tracy 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Tommy Carr pass yds 84.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TJ Thomas rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Savion Hiter rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Savion Hiter receiving yds 24.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Drake Lindsey pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under JJ Buchanan 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Noah Jennings 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under JJ Buchanan 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Drake Lindsey pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over TJ Thomas rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Savion Hiter rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Savion Hiter receiving yds 24.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Darius Taylor rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Javon Tracy 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Tommy Carr pass yds 84.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jordan Marshall rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Andrew Marsh receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javon Tracy receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Noah Jennings receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jalen Smith receiving yds 32.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Andrew Marsh 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over JJ Buchanan receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over games4 Minnesota Golden Gophers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· Points per game 35.0 vs 25.3 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
59% Both total runs 60.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 60.5 Under· Totals Under Michigan Wolverines Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-1 vs 3-1 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
41% Team stats6 Michigan Wolverines team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Golden Gophers team runs 35.5 Over· Team Points Michigan Wolverines Team pass yds 174.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Michigan Wolverines Team rush yds 129.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Minnesota Golden Gophers Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.