Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks — Game center Final NCAA Football
Sep 26 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 27%
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 73%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 3-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1435 vs 1290 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.4 vs 26.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
CFBD strength index
1435 vs 1290
+15.4%p
Head to head Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Jacksonville State Gamecocks
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API + CollegeFootballData
Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 1.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
81% Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Low
expected margin 1.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 11 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Jacksonville State Gamecocks wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Jacksonville State Gamecocks Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 3-2 vs 2-2 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· CollegeFootballData strength index 1435 vs 1290 (50% blend)· Points per game 27.4 vs 26.0 (capped at ±4%p)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 23/14 Hit
73% Both total runs 53.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 53.5 Under· Totals Under Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 2-2 vs 3-2 — away adjustment applied· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 13/24 Miss
27% player stat32 Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Markus Allen receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Neo Clifton receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Darius Cannon receiving yds 29.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalen Likely rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Caden Creel rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Roman Gagliano pass yds 174.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Antonio Martin rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Markus Allen 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Caden Creel pass yds 179.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Cam'ron Lacy 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Deondre Johnson 리셉션 2.5 Under· Receptions Under Cam'ron Lacy 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Caden Creel pass yds 179.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Markus Allen 리셉션 2.5 Over· Receptions Over Caden Creel rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Roman Gagliano pass yds 174.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Antonio Martin rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalen Likely rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Darius Cannon receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luke Gilbert receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Neo Clifton receiving yds 29.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Deondre Johnson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Markus Allen receiving yds 34.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cam'ron Lacy receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Terrence Brown rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Darius Cannon 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Team stats6 Jacksonville State Gamecocks team runs 27.5 Over· Team Points Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team pass yds 204.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Jacksonville State Gamecocks Team rush yds 179.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Team pass yds 184.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.